🔗 Share this article

When Vladimir Putin visited the South Asian nation four years ago, the global landscape was markedly different. The brief visit, curtailed by the pandemic, centered around talks on economic and military ties between the two leaders.

Not long after, the full-scale invasion of Ukraine would turn the Russian leader into a global pariah, significantly restricting his overseas engagements.

Furthermore, that era came before a significant shift in US-India relations, marked by contentious rhetoric and the imposition of substantial trade tariffs.

"Against this backdrop, the significance of Putin's journey to engage with the Indian PM is profound, serving as a signal of resilient relations and a defiance of external pressure," experts emphasize.

A Pivotal Moment for Two Major Powers

The high-level meeting occurs at a crucial time. President Putin arrives after rejecting recent peace proposals for Ukraine, bolstered by reported gains by Russian forces.

"For Russia, the key significance of this visit is its simple happening," stated a senior researcher based in Moscow. "It suggests a return to a form of normal international relations."

For India, the risks are particularly elevated. The country navigates a challenging international environment, characterized by a semi-isolationist United States, a weakened Russia, and an assertive China.

This delicate balance was underscored just before the visit, when senior Western diplomats released a joint opinion piece criticizing Russia's peace efforts. This elicited a firm response from Indian officials, who called it an inappropriate interference.

'China Remains the Greatest Threat'

The India-Russia bond dates back to the Cold War era and remains deeply entrenched, with Moscow long being Delhi's primary arms provider. This alliance was generally accepted by the West until a change in approach.

For years, Western nations overlooked India's large-scale buying of cheap energy from Russia. Yet, in the wake of failed peace efforts, accusations mounted, leading to punitive tariffs and a major chill in transatlantic relations with Delhi.

"Consequently, India has reverted to its traditional posture of maintaining multiple options," noted a strategic analyst. "It signals to the US that it has alternatives and is observing how the situation unfolds."

Beyond global diplomacy, India's core motivation with Russia is its strategic location. "Beijing continues to be the greatest threat to India, and historically, India has relied on Russia as a counterweight against China," the analyst added.

The strengthening Moscow-Beijing axis has caused concern in Delhi, leading to efforts to avoid an unbreakable bond between its adversary and its traditional ally.

This apprehension has also accelerated India's drive to diversify its military imports, shrinking its reliance on Russian equipment from a dominant share to a reduced portion in the past few years.

"India will attempt to find a middle ground: buy sufficient Russian weaponry to maintain the alliance, but not become so dependent that a sudden cutoff would cripple its defenses," the analyst concluded.

Energy and Economic Ties

Increased trade relations is expected to be a key agenda item. The Russian leader has recently stressed plans to elevate cooperation with India to a "qualitatively new level", in spite of Western sanctions.

The issue of crude oil imports remains pivotal. Although the Indian government has stated to keep buying Russian oil, new sanctions have slowed activity from the commercial buyers. At the same time, India has agreed to increase imports of American oil and gas.

A Russian official acknowledged "obstacles" in economic cooperation but said it would proceed without major disruption. The official downplayed the effect of sanctions, claiming they would cause only "insignificant" and "brief" disruptions and that Russia possesses the "means" to circumvent them.

Limited Leverage on Ukraine

When the two leaders sit down, the topic of Ukraine is expected to be addressed mainly through India's standard call for dialogue and peace.

"Yes, Prime Minister Modi can speak to all parties, the nation lacks the diplomatic clout to significantly influence the conflict," the analyst said. "Aside from urging negotiations, its ability to effect change is constrained."

Ultimately, notwithstanding the public displays of camaraderie between the two leaders, the partnership is fundamentally one of "pragmatic strategic interest," driven by national interest in a volatile world.